April 2 is the day when Trump's tariffs could raise the temperature on the markets to the maximum
Oleg Kalmanovich Markets are tense ahead of Trump's trade decisions
Investors are waiting for April 2, when Trump will announce new tariffs. Tariffs on pharmaceuticals, timber and cars are possible. Initial market forecasts assumed that the rates would not exceed 10% (except for China), but Trump could take a tougher stance and then soften the conditions. Delays are possible for the EU, Canada, Japan and Mexico, which will be a positive signal for the markets.
Focus on non-farm payrolls
On Friday, April 5, key data on the US labor market - non-farm payrolls - will be released. This data is of key interest to the Fed, as it reflects the state of employment in the country and can significantly affect the regulator's monetary policy. An increase in the number of jobs can strengthen expectations for economic growth, while weak data will increase fears of a slowdown. While the economic calendar forecast is for a decline
Gold hits records
Gold prices are rising sharply amid investor concerns over trade tariffs, hitting records in Asia. Gold continues to gain as investors seek safe havens amid the risks of a U.S. recession.
Meanwhile, oil is under pressure and falling despite attempts to recover, as global trade risks contribute to concerns about an economic slowdown. Oil prices are forecast to fall for the first time in a quarter.
Cryptocurrencies are also having a hard time as investors seek refuge in more stable assets such as the dollar. Bitcoin fluctuated between $81,565 and $88,765, closing the week at $82,389, down 4.29%. A break of support at $81,000 could open the way for a fall to $76,000.
Key events of the week:
- April 2 – Trump’s tariff decision, possible easing for a number of countries.
- April 3 – ISM business activity index, will indicate the state of the US economy.
- April 5 – nonfarms: an important indicator for the Fed’s rate decisions.
- April 5 – Powell’s speech, who will sum up the results of inflation, the labor market and tariffs.
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