Calm before the tariff storm: markets hold their breath

US futures rise on hopes for tariff easing

Markets are reacting to news from Bloomberg and WSJ: Trump will limit himself to targeted tariffs against 15 countries, rather than imposing broad sectoral tariffs. This has reduced fears about inflation and global trade. Dow +320 pts. (+0.8%), S&P 500 +53 pts. (+0.9%), Nasdaq 100 +230 pts. (+1.2%). Earlier, fears of tariffs brought indices down to six-month lows, but now investors are hoping that the effect will be less destructive.

Trade wars: smaller, but still painful

Although the scale of tariffs may now decrease, even such volumes can negatively affect the economy and corporate profits. Tariffs still pose risks to global trade, and retaliatory measures from partner countries could increase uncertainty. Trump calls April 2 "liberation day," but markets doubt that this "liberation" will come at little cost

Oil prices rise on sanctions against Iran

Brent quotes are currently at $71.80 (+0.3%), and WTI at $68.51 (+0.3%). US sanctions against Iran have raised concerns about a reduction in supplies, and OPEC+ continues to limit production, which supports quotes. Investors are pricing in possible supply disruptions.

Key events of the week:

- PMI of the Eurozone and Britain (Monday) – will set the trend for the dollar

- US Treasury bill auctions remain in the spotlight: against the backdrop of trade wars, investors continue to move into defensive assets, reducing risks (will take place from Tuesday to Thursday)

- US GDP and unemployment claims on Thursday – important indicators for assessing macroeconomic dynamics

- Friday – PCE inflation (key indicator for the Fed)