Economic Detective: Sanctions, Rates and Political Intrigue on the Global Arena

This week, the attention of investors will be focused, first of all, on geopolitical events. Negotiations between the USA and Russia on a possible peace agreement on Ukraine, which are taking place in Saudi Arabia, stand out. A decrease in the degree of geopolitical tension can have a beneficial effect on the growth of risky assets.

It is worth noting that on Monday the US stock markets will be closed in connection with the holiday - "President Washington Day", which allows market participants to more calmly assess the impact of the recent decisions of President Trump on import tariffs and reduce currency fluctuations at the beginning of the week.

We remind you that Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose taxes on American goods, but at the moment he does not introduce new mandatory duties. This creates uncertainty in the markets, as investors worry about the possible impact of these measures on inflation and the decision of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) on interest rates. There is an opinion that the new tariffs can slow down the pace of rate reduction, which started in 2024.

As for corporate stories, investors' attention will be focused on the report of Walmart (#WMT) on Thursday, which may give an idea of ​​the state of consumption in the US, especially against the background of growing fears about inflation. At the same time, gold prices continue to remain high due to uncertainty in the market.

This week, there will also be meetings of the Bank of Australia (Tuesday) and New Zealand (Wednesday) with an almost guaranteed rate cut, and the published protocol of the Fed (Wednesday) will most likely have a hawkish character. In Great Britain, the publication of inflation data is expected on Wednesday, and in the United States, the key day will be Friday with indicators of business activity PMI in the country.

In conclusion, we highlight the most recent information from the Asian region, namely - in Japan, the economy showed growth in the 4th quarter that exceeded expectations, with an increase in GDP by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, which is connected with the recovery of exports.