FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK (14 - 18 October 2024)

Volatility on global markets continues to fade due to the lack of strong news and statistics "on the horizon". Key data on the US labor market and inflation are already in the market, now the financial "sharks" need to digest and analyze the information received before the Fed meeting on November 7. In other words, many sections are now in a period of "respite", accumulation of strength - on the charts, this is usually displayed as a sideways trend, prices are moving into a corridor, without a clear trend.

The main attention is now focused on events in China. Last weekend, the Chinese Ministry of Finance promised significant support for the real estate sector, but specific figures on monetary stimulus have not yet been announced (about $283 billion is expected). This caused some pressure on commodity markets. Perhaps additional details will appear during the budget discussions in the Chinese parliament. If the stimulus increases and the Chinese trade data does not disappoint, then further growth of stock markets is possible

Key events of the week: 

There will not be many key data in the market's focus this week. Of those that are worth highlighting is the core retail sales index, which will be released on Thursday, October 17. For now, the forecast in the economic calendar is in the neutral zone - 0.1% against the same value for the previous month. Let us remind you that indicators higher than expected are considered positive/bullish for the USD, while data below the forecast negatively affects the USD exchange rate. Deviation from the forecast in one direction or another - can either support the dollar (higher data), or affect its decline if the values ​​are in the zero or even negative zone.

A 0.25% rate cut is expected at the ECB meeting on Thursday, but further decisions will depend on the data and forecasts for December. The Eurozone's economic woes could make the euro an ideal carry trade currency.

The UK has some important economic reports this week that will impact the Bank of England's rate decision on November 7. The week will end with a block of Chinese data, including GDP, which could impact profit-taking before the weekend.

What's in store today? 

The US and Canada are closed on Monday, and liquidity could drop to near zero in the afternoon as the US session gets underway (the US debt market is closed, but the stock market will be open). There are no other Important scheduled reports.