FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK (2 - 6 December 2024)

Awaiting the US labor market report - nonfarm payrolls.

At the close of last week and in today's Asian trading, there is a positive sentiment, especially in the shares of the high-tech sector. Oil is also showing a slight increase against the backdrop of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where a decision on continuing production cuts by the agreement participants is likely to be made.

The current week promises to be full of important events that can have a significant impact on financial markets. The bulk of them will be economic data from the United States. Particular attention will be paid to the ISM reports on industry and services, as well as data on vacancies in the labor market JOLTs. However, the most anticipated event will be the US labor market report, which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month.

Banks expect that employment data for November will be quite strong. Current forecast: 202k jobs against 12k for the previous month. The return of strikers and the temporarily unemployed caused by the recent storms, coupled with increased hiring in the retail sector ahead of the Christmas shopping, should lead to a positive report. A repeat of the strong September employment report could change expectations for future rate cuts, which threatens to support the stock rally.

Of course, the key moment for the stock section will be the Fed meeting on September 18 and the announcement of the decision on the interest rate. At the moment, market participants continue to expect the Fed to cut the rate in December - 62% probability, according to Fedwatch from the CME group. Also important will be the emphasis in the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the regulator's meeting on December 18.

On Monday, data on manufacturing activity (PMI) and a report on construction spending are scheduled, as well as speeches by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams.
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