Tariffs, geopolitics and economic reports are the main drivers of the market this week

In the coming week, the markets will focus on trade wars and geopolitics, as well as important economic reports - especially on the US labor market (non-farms) on Friday.

The main event is Trump's decision to increase tariffs: on goods from Mexico and Canada by 25% (oil and gas - by 10%), and on China by 10%. The US Treasury Department demands that Canada and Mexico increase tariffs on Chinese goods to avoid an increase in tariffs on their products. The resolution of this issue is expected on March 4. The final result can significantly affect market expectations: the absence of tariffs can contribute to optimism, while their introduction will create additional pressure on the market and reduce positive sentiment.

A parallel meeting of the CPC of China is taking place, where they will probably confirm the target of 5% GDP growth and announce a new stimulus program to support consumption. What could trigger a good rise in Asian stocks. However, trade restrictions from the EU and the US could complicate China's transition to domestic demand.

Another significant event is the EU-UK summit on Ukraine. European leaders are unhappy with the lack of an invitation to talks in Saudi Arabia. French President Macron has proposed using frozen Russian assets to create a "European NATO", but Ukraine's dependence on the US remains a key factor.

Meanwhile, in the commodity section, it is worth noting the decline in oil prices amid hopes for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

Trading opened on a positive note on Monday - futures on the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showed growth ahead of Trump's decision on tariffs, despite a weak February. Investors are waiting for ISM PMI data indicating a slowdown in production.

As noted above, the key indicators of the week, nonfarm payrolls, will be released on Friday. They will become an important indicator of the state of the labor market and may influence the Fed's forecasts before the meeting on March 19.

Investors are also focusing on the Trump cryptocurrency summit, where the idea of ​​a Crypto Strategic Reserve is being discussed.