News 01.12.23

Commerzbank's forecast indicates that gold prices (XAU/USD) will experience limited growth in the near future. Although there has been a recent rise due to the anticipation of a rate cut, a sustained upward trend is unlikely. This is because the validity of the Fed's predictions for a 50 basis point rate cut by mid-2024 is uncertain. Therefore, there will likely be a decrease in gold prices, which could be influenced by the publication of the US labor market report at the end of this week.

MUFG highlights positive indicators for EUR/USD in December, attributing the dollar's significant 3% drop in November as a driving factor. They acknowledge the strong historical trend for EUR/USD, with 14 out of 20 Decembers experiencing an average increase of 2.6%. Additionally, 73% of the time, gains in November result in a follow-up gain in December, as seen in the available data. However, it is crucial to remain aware that if there is any indication of a deceleration in the US economy, the likelihood of an evident seasonal inclination in December will amplify. 

According to MUFG Bank analysts' evaluation of the EUR/GBP pair, it is anticipated that the Bank of England will diminish interest rates by 25 basis points in August 2024, matching the ECB and the Fed. A shift in the ECB's position, brought about by current data suggesting a speedy decrease in inflation, may result in additional weakening of the EUR/GBP pair as inflation predictions diverge, compelling varied policy perspectives.

Risk Warning: 
The information contained in this material should not be construed as trading recommendation. The analytical forecast is the subjective opinion of the author and cannot guarantee income.